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CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 7:00pm EDT
. that's just my advice. in an anemic overall economy, we've seen some positives in recent days. the ism services surprised on the up side today, 15 million car sales yesterday and of course stocks have been rising since a year ago today. the s&p is up 32%. so things can't be all that bad. how will the investor class vote in 34 days? but first up, both mitt romney and president obama are in their respective hotel rooms now. they're making final preparations for the big debate and cnbc's own john harwood joins us live with the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. two hours from that debate we've gotten a reminder in the last 24 hours with a slew of polls of how high the stakes are in this debate. we forget sometimes because we talk about how mitt romney is down in the race but he's still got a chance. only down 3 points nationally in the journal/nbc poll. in key swing points he's pulling even in florida, down 1, closer in virginia, down 2, he's still down by 8 percentage points in our poll in the state of ohio, which is a problem for this reason. look at the map of swing s
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 4:00pm EDT
necessary to get these economies to grow. you have to stabilize the patient before you try and fission their long-term problems. the politicians don't do this. that means europe stays in a recession. for u.s. investors, i think it is still something of a side show. >> something of a side show. until they either come up with the austerity or -- something's got to give, right? >> because it doesn't disrupt the u.s. economy. the u.s. economy is still growing. our exports to europe are only a very small part of our gdp. the housing market recovery is much more important to the improvement of wealth. we're seeing some improvement of confidence. we're seeing rising home prices. all these are more important to the united states than what's going on in europe. >> mark, how do you see it? you invested in europe these days or no? >> a little bit, maria. you know, i guess the thing i would say about europe and soon to watch on our shores is you're going to pay more and get less. i look forward to the dislocation between price and value. i think there are a few opportunities in europe selectively.
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 8:00pm EDT
begins now. >> tonight some of the most influential figures in the nation on the economy join us here on cnbc. >> we've got representative and hopeful ron paul with us. texas, from texas. he is of course outspoken about the federal reserve policies. robert reich is here with us tonight. also with us grover norquist. the man behind the no new taxes pledge so many republicans made. and bob lutz a former top auto executive. the auto bailout expected to be a big topic tonight. and we've got president of the aflcio. unions of course a major constituency. and roger altman. as you can see the lineup card is full. going to be great. >> absolutely. meantime our chief washington correspondent john harwood has made the trip to denver. what are you watching first tonight? >> what i'm watching for is how mitt romney takes advantage of this huge opportunity that he's got with tens of millions of americans watching these two side by side. he's behind in the polls, but not by an overwhelming margin. three points in our nbc/wall street journal poll. i talked to devine who was the campaign strateg
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 4:00pm EDT
adrenaline into economies. >> sandy, is there any reason to believe all of this buying of equities is just what michael said, the central banks of the world and really not based on fundamenta fundamentals, or is this old news at this point that we're going see a contraction in third quarter earnings as these numbers come out in the next couple weeks? >> i don't even know that people are buying equity. we've had about $8 billion that have come out of equities in the last two weeks and $6.3 billion that thhave come out of bonds. the stocks continue to work higher on that. you want to be positioned well. you want to buy good companies, good growth companies at reasonable prices and stick with that over the long term. >> you make a great point, sandy. we are, in fact, seeing outflows consistently. what's moving this market? >> i think it has to do with the election and things like that. look at last five years. i was just looking at numbers ending september over the five years. the s&p's done 1% annualized. bonds are up almost 5.8% annualized. i believe in reversion to the mean. i think s
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 11:00pm EDT
federal reserve that's so exasperated with its inability to get the economy moving, it's taken the unprecedented position saying it's going to stay acome date. aka, print money. we still are one more unthinkable, a slowing chinese economy. the great growth engine -- the great engine of growth that has supported global commerce for years. >> all aboard! >> including the darkest days of the dark recession. what's happened? stock market never quit, never stopped climbing. it's had a remarkable run with every sector leading the charge at one time or another. before i get into the big remonstrations for the evening. i have gotten the big picture right. the europe, the slowdown of china and the perma low growth, the united states. some income producers, growth names and stocks with solid dividend boosts and, of course, some gold. these have been the correct calls to make. i've stuck with this market because i believe europeans are not suicidal. so far so good on that front. at least of late. i believe chinese economy will simply come back by virtue of the fact there's a tremendous urban
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 4:00am EDT
in almost two years. it shows the rest of the economy has started to feel the effect from the sluggish manufacturing sector. if you look at the breakdown of the services pmi, the construction services sub index -- meanwhile, new orders were dragged lower by demand weakness for transportation. over in australia, a survey showed an even grimmer picture as its services index dipped to 41.9 in september. india reports its all important services pmi tomorrow, while hsbc is out next monday. that's all from me. >> thank you very much. >>> coming up on today's show, we head to paris to find out more, the attempts to offload his unit. then to hong kong where we examine the political transition in china plagued by scandals and disappearances. we get an expert view on the new leadership change. >>> and next, washington and its debate tonight as romney and obama finally square off. we'll have a preview of what to expect and what's at stake with our very own democrat-republican panel. >>> and real estate is on the rise. we head to new york with founder barbara corcoran. mariano rajoy has d
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 1:00pm EDT
that are harmful to the economy. one is it designates a number of banks as too big to fail and they're effectively guaranteed by the federal government. this is the biggest kiss that's been given to new york banks i've ever seen. >> i talked to one banking lobbyist here in town today. his reaction, he said folks were puzzled by that. even romney is beating up on the banks. one thing that unites democrats and republicans is beating up on the big banks. so, sue, here in washington, lobbyists for the banking industry watching that slightly askance. but i think there is a sense that a lot of this is political and doesn't necessarily imply how romney would necessarily govern as president of the united states. >> indeed. i think you are absolutely right. thank you. >>> so our poll question today -- do you think last night's debate will change the outcome of the campaign? vote by going to cnbc.com. the results are coming up a little later in "power lunch." >>> next though, seema mody joins us with a market flash. >> hi, sue. we're calling it the romney effect. sectors moving on the back of wh
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 2:00pm EDT
recessionary periods in the u.s. economy. drop back in 1990, it dropped back in 2000 to 2001, and of course it dropped with the financial crisis an the great recession hit. what i'm worried about, mandy, what we're going to talk about right now is the far right side of that screen. both of these numbers are coming in under 50. and when we hit sub 50 for both these numbers it often portends, how i do say it, not good things. >> that is indeed ugly. in fact, brian, as we can see from those charts, when the numbers come in below 50 it often means we're heading into recession. let's ask dan greenhouse, and with us senior vice-president of the chase mid cap growth fund. dan, i would like to start with you first of all. as we can see, the economic numbers appear to be take a turn for the worst. and yet your not totally convinced that the stock market rally is over. is that a fair play? >> well, it is. it's important to remember that the u.s. stock market is not u.s. gdp. certainly in the short term if not the medium term. i would make a couple of quick points. the first of which is, brian
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 9:00am EDT
confidence is doing? >> yeah, the housing numbers i think are great. that's one of the reasons the economy hasn't been strong to this point in the cycle. housing is keeping us from really stuttering on growth. we need more in housing, all that free cash flow in the corporate sector to be put to more productive use, investing in capital and labor. there's a real need for it, carl, because the capital stock in the economy is basically depreciating. we're operating with old depleted capital. >> housing is a much smaller portion. the context of this is we need a much bigger engine for this economy this time around. >> we do. but partly most of the housing is so low because it came from a high level and then a collapse. if you look at the fed flow of funds data, you've had two record quarters of growth because of higher home prices. but we need more jobs. so housing is helping, the consumer is still holding in. we need more jobs. it's got to come from the business side. >> what gives you the confidence that europe has stabilized? of course, we look at this durable goods number, we know that's p
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 12:00pm EDT
the eurozone and the stronger economy, alleged stronger economy. everything is in quotes. >> that's right. to me that is why '09 is an analogy for europe because the financial crisis really plateaued in the u.s. in the spring of '09 and the economic data didn't show improvement until the late '09. >> good to have you as always on the program. let's take a look at the markets as we head to break. have you the dow up 150 points, perhaps offer the best levels and nasdaq way off the highs as well and a rare one at that given what mondays have usually meant to the markets over the last several months. up next, live from the value investing congress, the fourth quarter playbook continues live as i fannish from the heart of new york city. will financialing out shine and which pang stocks should you bet on and how big of a threat is china to u.s. stocks? halftime reports comes back. with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow do
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 2:00pm EDT
and just how terribly challenged the economies there are, and you look at u.s. which is clearly oversupplied with oil an shows no sign of that changing, the supply and production figures are not at all supporters for oil prices higher but we still have to think about what's out there in terms of iran and investor enthusiasm for cheaper credit. >> interesting you mentioned iran. we're going to talk about that in a second. but certainly the middle east tensions, we're up $21 a barrel from where we were in june. numbers specifically. we've broken below $90 a barrel. to what extent was that both a technical and psychological barrier? it opens up much further to the downside? >> it was a very big fundamental or technical number at $90. i think the reason we got down to that $90 level is because of bad possible builds coming out from the numbers that were released at 10:30 and they were bearish. we also have bad economic data coming out from around the world. all bearish on crude oil. had we broke $90, it exasperated itself to the downside. i personally see $86 to $85 as a low for cru
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 5:00pm EDT
great for the u.s. economy. that is great for u.s. stocks. what has to happen in the u.s. market is oil has always been this traditional leading indicator in the economy. if oil is up that means there is lots of demand and that is great. >> let's look at the oil picture. we did see oil breaking below $88. how could a regime change in iran impact oil? joining us is the king of commodities himself. you can take a look at wti. it doesn't seem like it is reflecting the tensions or would we be even lower if we didn't have them? >> i think that what we're seeing and michelle was explaining it quite well, i sent e-mails to explain what was happening. the possibilities of regime change is very much a part -- there has been tear gas let out in teheran in the streets. the currency has been literally collapsing. the currency movement of 5% is extraordinary in a week. a currency movement at 40% is perhaps unparalleled other than periods of hyperinflation. the regime has to be concerned about its continuation. we are hoping the students and workers will take the streets. they have seen what happ
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 11:00pm EDT
parade. you would like to think this is all an anomaly if you're bullish. and the economy has a little rough patch before it accelerates again. what happens if this is the rough patch that causes companies to slam on the brakes, ahead of what is no longer a fiscal cliff but a fiscal retaining wall. when you consider that the republicans are run by the tea party and democrats don't have to change, we have gone from thinking we can jump the fiscal cliff to thinking how can we slow business spending so that the collision won't destroy us? it's not just the u.s. that's a drag. china, there's a big hate on china right now. china is big hat. no. big mao cap no cattle. the worst downturn in two months is more representative of what's happening because there is no unity between the rich and poor nations. don't they show that there's no real hope for fiscal reform in that wounded country? today's action, i heard all day it's phony. me and many portfolio managers buy stocks and move them higher to the end of the quarter to get a little gain there. the conclusion, if this were monday coming up, a
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 6:00am EDT
red flag for the economy. we'll talk more about the transports and what they're telling us at 6:40. we'll also focus on the economy with the man who is charged with officially calling recessions and the end of those recessions. james poterba will be here at 7:30. and our corporate story of the morning, smartphones and mobile devices. apple launches the new iphone 5 in 22 more countries today and this comes after blackberry posted better than expected quarterly results after the bell last night. still, it is an uphill climb for this company. we'll be talking to research in motion ceo. and plus we will welcome today's political news maker, senator rand paul, one of the nation's best known tea party members. and by the way, in case you went to sleep early last night, the official nfl refs were back on the field. get this, they got a standing ovation as they took the field. the ravens beating the browns 23-16. we will have more on the game and on what's happening in sports at 6:20 eastern time. first andrew has the morning's top business headlines. >>> on the global markets agenda, res
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 7:00pm EDT
there's been any economy growth at all, it's been -- whatever we have had has been completely funded -- remember what obama said, i'm going to build a new foundation. it's built on easy money and borrowing. >> the only argument, the only argument that romney and the republicans have is look how terrible things are, they're the america lose crowd. >> that's their only argument. >> so guess what, bright signs in the market you indicated today. bright signs in manufacturing. it couldn't possibly be because of good public policy. >> you realize this year's worse than last year, right? >> i know you're an obama insider. >> no, i'm an outsider. >> does president obama understand the federal reserve? the reason i ask is does he know what bernanke's doing? the reason i ask this is that most people only recognize a third to a half of the intelligence reports. >> he's too good for that. most people have reported that he's only gotten and he got it online through his ipad. do you think he understands, do you really think he understands what's going on in the federal reserve? >> i do. any about
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 1:00pm EDT
sure the mesh economy was on solid base and that we could get some jobs back. >> we're about four minutes from the beginning of that q&a session. we are monitoring mr. bernanke's address, art. we'll bring you the session when it does begin. >>> bond traders also keeping a very close eye on mr. bernanke and his remarks and the upcoming q&a that we'll bring you. rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. reactions? >> i've been phoning around. there is a very common thread especially among a lot of the futures traders. they keyed if on one sentence of ben bernanke. we'll show it on the screen. we expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens. and this is what traders were not happy about. i talked to two or three traders that said they're going to be moving now almost exclusively in trading non-financials, commodities, precious metals, and his opinion -- things that the fed can't print. they also think that ultimately it will be the long end of the market that dictates whether rates go up or n
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 9:00am EDT
will bolster the economy. when we announced qe-3, those were exactly the conversation we were having on the point, but still the market rallied and later on down the line, you rationalize it as the initial event wasn't so powerful. now we're doing exactly the same in europe. every time we go through this process. >> let's take an attendance call. volumes are still considerably low. today is a holiday. last week we had a significant holiday in the u.s. attendance is just low. there's not the kind of participation. so if you get something like that that spooks a few participants who actually are in the market, it's going to have a more profound effect and you'll see a percent and a half pullback. >> where do you stand on the notion that there's going to be a chase for performance in the fourth quarter and therefore will want to be in this market, putting sort of a floor underneath? >> that's a legitimate concern for people who aren't fully invested, but up to where they should be in terms of risk on with their portfolios. i do see there's considerable amount of risk to have that continue
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 4:00am EDT
camera to change the mood. business confidence in the world's third biggest economy continues to take a hit. sentiment fell in the july to september quarter. this according to the central bank's survey. falling output and exports have taken a toll along with rising worries over strained relations with china. the one bright spot, the mood in the service sector which remains much higher. japan also has a new finance chief after noda reshuffled his cabinet. largely expected to stick to the reform plan. in all ten new faces were brought into the cabinet including the economics minister and he's been urging the bank of japan to take more action, as well, on the economy. ed rogers is ceo of rogers investment advisers and he joins us now. ed, was that one bright spot in the tank enough? >> good morning, ross. i think actually there were two bright spots. cap ex- is expected to rise at much higher rate than previously expected. those are good things. the fact that in the short term we have a bit of a down tick in enthusiasm and a lot of that could well be placed at the doorstep of the ch
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 6:00pm EDT
get the economy moving, it's taken the position of saying it's going to stay accommodative, meaning continuing to print money even as it looks like the economy is turning around. that's the exact opposite of a mandate to take away the punch bowl once the party gets started. now ben bernanke is going to keep it flowing for as long as it takes. we could be for three days. plus, one more unthinkable, a slowing chinese economy. the great engine of growth that has supported global commerce for years. >> all aboard! >> including the darkest days of the great recession. and what's happened? the stock market never quit. never stopped climbing, it has a remarkable run with almost every sector leading the charge at one time or another, the great rotation. and before i go into the by remistations for the evening. i told you not to waver, to stay the course, the slowdown against china, and the growth that is the united states. the diverse portfolio of high-quality stocks, income producers, and growth stocks with solid dividend boosts. and of course, some gold. these have all been the correct ca
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 6:00am EDT
economy. they'll do fine whether you're president or i am. the people having the hard time are middle income americans. under the president's policy, middle income americans have been buried. they're being crushed. >> for 18 months he's been running on this tax plan. and now five weeks before the election he's saying that his big bold idea is never mind. and the fact is that if you are lowering the rates the way you describe, governor, then it is not possible to come up with enough deductions and loopholes that only affect high income individuals to avoid either raising the definite it or burdeneni ing the middle class. it's hamath. >> another hot topic, the deficit. >> it's now four years later, we still have trillion dollar defici deficits. >> $2.50 for every cut, we ask for a dollar of additional revenue paid for as i indicated earlier by asking those of us who have done very well in this country to contribute a little bit more to reduce the deficit. >> there were also some notable exchanges about jobs, health care, energy industry subsidies and regulation, all of these things got
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 4:00am EDT
largest economy. we keep talking about the risks that come from swings in oil prices at least for the audi economy. and stability in the country. he says that's not really the biggest risk. at least not from a brush capital perspective. >> for the start, we have a business in the country, a large group of investors and they're focused in development. the issues are not about whether or not the economic opportunities are there. i think they are. i think saudi arabia and in terms of individual sectors, they'll perform extremely well. it's about the politics, not the economy. i think the people generally speaking are quite happy with the stimulus package and with the political system. >> tensions indeed remain high especially in some towns in the eastern province of the kingdom. of course we also got a start on the broader concept and developments in the arab spring. why he chose india over china when it comes to their broader investment strategy. and of course we'll talk about the art of private equity, as well. but just on a closing note, ross, the commonalty in these investments in th
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 1:00pm EDT
. it wasn't as good as people had expected. that suggests the economy may not be so hot, right? >> set the stage. we just downgrade the second quarter. we went from 1.7 to 1.3. we talked about that yesterday. >> this i consistent with that. >> exactly. we thought third quarter might have a two handle on it. we're taking that two handle off. before i came on goldman sachs has a report saying they're looking at 1.9. i see some over 1.8, 1.7. slow mediocre growth continues. i think the key being, can we resolve the issues that have hung over the american economy from spain? >> is madrid more important than chicago? >> at least it is today. we wanted to see what the needs would be for the spanish banks. the numbers that they put out today after this exhaustive examination. >> do you breath numbers? >> the market believes them now. they came about in line with expectations. the number could change depending on what happens with the spanish economy and if real estate prices fall even further. you think more of this like a tradeoff. if the capital requirements had been even bigger it
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 7:00pm EDT
stuff that. worked for bill clinton because bill clinton had a raring economy so he could worry about school uniforms and talk about small stuff. where is i the president's big plan? >> where's mitt romney's small plan? >> you heard it last night. he has an entitlement reform plan, tax plan, corporate tax plan, energy plan, trade plan. the president doesn't. and i think it really showed. he imagined he was going to get through this race simply by disqualifying romney. they almost did it during the summer. they came this close. >> hold on a second. >> i want to ask you something. the whole debate last night was obama saying no to romney's agenda. we all learned romney's agenda. nobody learned obama's agenda. now he's going back to negativism. this is a huge mistake. let me tell you something else romney did to get reaction. your man obama is going to have so much trouble. romney said to 68 million viewers, i can make a deal. i can go across the aisle like i did in massachusetts. in fact he even said about his tax reform plan, if you don't like the specific version let's talk about some
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 4:00am EDT
to fix the u.s. economy. waiting on spain, the ecb expected to hold steady on rates. country's president tells cnbc that europe's policymakers must remain focused. >> if we get bogged down into what was meant by the june agreements and waste time on this kind of discussions, then it's much less likely that a coherent system will emerge. >> madrid continues to put faith in the hands of private investors while finance minister heads to london to raise funds for the country's bad bank. and india's crucial services sector grows at its fastest rate in seven months, while the government gets set to take another swing at boosting it through foreign investments. thanks very much for joining me. anyone that's missing ross, he'll be back in tomorrow. but for now, you're all mine. . plenty to come on the next couple hours of the show. lots of guests to help us figure out what's going on. we'll get a view from sydney about cautious shoppers. borrowing costs are expected to fall. we'll bring you those results from madrid. and we'll head out to malaysia for an exclusive interview with the co
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 5:00pm EDT
rally even if the economy does not. >>> and a play that could have profits screaming right into your hand. we'll reveal what it is later in the show. want to try to crack it? yeah, that's the way to do it! now we need a little bit more... a little bit more vanilla? this is great! [ male announcer ] at humana, we believe there's never been a better time to share your passions... because the results... are you having fun doing this? yeah. that's a very nice cake! [ male announcer ] well, you can't beat them. [ giggles ] ohh! you got something huh? whoa... [ male announcer ] humana understands the value of spending time together that's a lot of work getting that one in! let's go see the birdies. [ male announcer ] one on one, sharing what you know. let's do it grandpa. that's why humana agents will sit down with you, to listen and understand what's important to you. it's how we help you choose the right humana medicare plan for you. because when your medicare is taken care of, you can spend more time sharing your passions. wow. [ giggles ] [ male announcer ] with the people who matter m
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 9:00am EDT
sense. from td ameritrade. >>> the markets are truly sandwiched between politics and the economy. the debate last night, a lot of data today and tomorrow including the jobs number. and the opening bell. the s&p 500 at the top of your screen over the big board, steelcase, maker of business furniture. you might be sitting on some right now, celebrating its 100th anniversary over at the nasdaq. net element international, a mobile commerce and payment processing company celebrating its ipo today. and jim, there have been several of those, although, as we saw from lifelock, not all of them going the way the companies had wished. >> no, it's interesting, this company that's becoming public, it is a terrific household name. they make a lot of plastics that we all use, hard plastics is really their major initiative. plastic uses a lot of natural gas, which means that the margins should be going up. nobody cares. >> yeah, it priced below the range. bery is the ticker. it debuts here on the stock exchange. meantime, hewlett-packard, hitting another new low, down 1.5%. we didn't get a chance to
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 2:00pm EDT
won't help an economy plagued by uncertainty. it could complicate the tightening of policy when it is time for the fed to tighten and it could raise rates in other sectors. however, most participants believe the risk of qe as detailed there could be managed. >>> now a couple issues here. the effectiveness of the calendar date guidance. remember they extended that into 2015. but there's a big debate on the fed about whether or not this is effective. they worry that the change could be seen as an economic downgrade and not have a positive economic impact. they also said they prefer economic factors to calendar dates. sounds easy, right? no. because they can't agree on whether to use numerical targets and what they should be. they're discussing th ining the discussing these numeric targets. >>> that's a lot of information to process. we're going to do what we are calling the fed minutes in a minute. you have 60 seconds to break it down, pull out the nuggets that we need to know about and that are going to move the markets. your time starts now. >> these minutes to my opinion show the cha
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 1:00pm EDT
about how president obama's done as well as anyone could do in turning the economy around the last four years. secondly, he's got to make a positive case with passion, with credibility for his own economic plans, for how he's going to make life better for 100% of americans. third, he's going to have to deal with that 47% video which has really taken a toll on his campaign. he's got to do all those things at the same time. we've seen the history of debates, tyler. it is not easy to fundamentally turn a race around but we have seen from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll that he's within three points nationally. still possible for him to win. got get going down. >> amman, there is some buzz about a plan that romney hs apparently floated for basically a $17,000 cap on tax deductions for americans. explain it. you've crunched the number. what's the headline here? >> tyler, the headline here is that the romney campaign e-mailed me this morning on this. they say they want to make very clear this is not a specific proposal from governor romney, that he's just floating one idea among many.
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 4:00pm EDT
good read on the economy with maria's exclusive interview there in san francisco with the president of oracle corp, mark hurd. i'll see you tomorrow. >>> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody, welcome back to "the closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo coming to you today from san francisco. we're following up the close this monday night. stocks losing steam in the final hours of trading today. dow industrials had a rip roaring day, thebest, up as many as 161 points. after stronger than expected manufacturing data set the tone this morning for this market. stocks gave back much of the gains after federal reserve chairman ben bernanke defended the central bank's latest bond buying stimulus program. is that a red flag that this fed-fueled rally is in trouble? top strategists are weigh in tonight. take a look at how we're finishing the day on wall street. as you can see, things settled out, dow jones industrial average held on to a double-digit move, although well off of that 161-point rally. the nasdaq went negative, although it, too, came back off
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 4:00pm EDT
the bottom line is the economy is still very, very weak. i'll tell you, we've been on overweight equities for the last six or nine months. we're now starting to pull back some of the risk. yes, the market could rally higher. i don't see the stimulus up as much as i did when everybody didn't believe qe-3 was coming. i think there's more negative potential headlines. we're taking risk off the table right now and hopefully we'll re-enter at a lower position. >> it's interesting. rickntelli, the fiscal cliff keeps coming up. that's one of the biggest issues in terms of keeping businesses from making any real decisions here, putting money to work, and it's also the highlight going into the election. >> it is. i guess the real irony is even if the fiscal cliff didn't exist, the outlook economically, both domestically and globally, is deteriorating. really, it's a bit of a double whammy. i'll go back to what i said the last time we discussed this an hour ago. if you look at the 21 weeks from mid-october to march of 2000 when the nasdaq crashed, in those 21 weeks, the nasdaq almost doubl
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 3:00pm EDT
this week about the games in the market don't seem to reflect the declines in the economy. there's sort of a disconnect. i think you agree with that, don't you? >> i absolutely agree with you, bill. i think all of september the market has been moved, not by what's going on here in the united states, but what's been going on in europe, which says to me two things. one, any bad news out of europe is going to send the market down. two, eventually people are going to have to pay attention to what's going on in the united states. i'm expecting we're heading into earnings season, i'm expecting anemic growth, and eventually that's going to have to play into the situation here. i mean, i know you don't fight the fed, but eventually we have to come back to what's going on in terms of fundamentals and stop focusing on monetary policy. >> what do you think? are we going to focus on fundamentals? if you are, kurt, would you be a seller of this market? >> we are focused in on fundamentals. i think this has been a tug of war between the reflationists and some of the risk that's been perceived in
CNBC
Sep 30, 2012 6:00am EDT
economy. >> mike is bullish when he comes to halliburton. he is simply buying a call. for everyone who thinks options are tricky, this is as simple as it can get. let's open that play book once again for those. who might be new to the show and options trading. this is a bullish strategy. when you buy a call you want the stock to rise above by more than the cost of the trade. that is all it takes. easy-peasy. anything below that level you will see losses by expiration. that's the tricky part. mike, walk us through this trade. >> so very simply i am looking to buy the january 36 calls. cost about a buck at the time i looked. this is a simple trade because if you buy these things you only need to run through that strike by the amount of premium you are paying. the other thing is i indicated some concern about the economic data we have been getting. much of it has not been that good. we have been talking about how good it has been for stock prices but not for the results of the companies. we're going to hear that this earnings season. >> dan, what do you think of the trade? >> i don't mind
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 12:00pm EDT
. economy is the one that's likely to come out of all these problems and a much better sted than just about any other economy and that will show up at earnings. >> ed, how much of today, if any, do you think is due to the perception that governor romney may have improved his standing at the first debate? >> i don't know. there's a lot of controversy about that. i've seen people argue that the rally we've had in the past couple of months reflects that obama might win, figuring that the market, you know, prefers dealing with somebody we know rather than somebody we don't know. i mean there's a lot of interpretations here, and obviously there are a lot of political color to all of this. look, i think that, you know, romney won last night. it isn't just that he won. obama lost with his performance. it brings him back as a credible candidate and he might win all of a sudden, whereas right before the elections everybody sort of wrote him off. so we have to look alt his policy proposals, and obama attacked romney for not having any, but actually on the fiscal side, he's getting pretty specific abo
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 3:00pm EDT
showing weakness in this economy. investors not worried about these numbers today. >> we got decent news out of europe and china this morning. either way, we're asking if investors should think twice before buying into this kind of a rally based on what the u.s. economy is telling us right now. let's talk about it in today's "closing bell" exchange. we have larry blazer from mayflower advisers and our own rick santelli and mandy drury. larry glazer, you happen to believe that economically there's an iceberg dead ahead. this market doesn't act like it today. >> no, it doesn't. you can see today investors are so focused on the global stimlouse story that they're missing the big picture. the big picture is the fact that the economic data, particularly global manufacturing data, is absolutely rolling over. look at chinese manufacturing, down 11 months in a row. you hit the nail on the head. gdp, durable goods, all a sign of weakness. the problem is the catalysts are behind us and the icebergs are ahead. you've got the fiscal live, all these things looking at us for those reasons. it's l
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 7:00pm EDT
, businesses capital goods, investment heading south. those are two basic drivers of the economy, and if that stops jobs are going to stop, too and so is everything else. >> larry, i think those are very good points. i would argue most of the weakness we are seeing in the manufacturing side is a function of much weaker export s because of weakness in europe and asia. i think what we are seeing in the latest chicago data is a catchup with all the other weakness we had seen in earlier surveys. i think the economy is weak. it's not strong by any means but the labor market looks like it is growing. i don't think it will rollover from modest job growth. claims are ploe low and tax receipts are improving. >> 1 30i7b 3% depend we got earlier this weak. a lot of people would call ate growth recession. i want to ask is this stall-speed or an actual recession? >> i think we have slowed since the 1.3% second quarter number larry. we are seeing durable goods orders down in july and august. we are seeing the pmi is down. importantly, europe is moving in to a recession. germany is now in recession
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 6:00am EDT
strategies. the economy is obviously a big part of this story. the qe announcement providing a shock to stock. we'll talk to charlie evans at 8:30 eastern time. and then it is your money, your vote. we'll start the countdown to the first presidential tee batd, that is on wednesday night. we'll be turning to a pair of political strategists in the next half hour for a preview. plus a cnbc exclusive, julia boars sten catching up with sheryl sandberg. including just how many people put everything about themselves online. >> does it scare that you you've helped create a generation of oversharers? >> i think what we give is people the ability to share what they want. what is one person's ridiculous oversharing is another person's regular day and we build technology that lets users share what they want to share and that's tremendously exciting. >> julia will join us with more of that conversation coming up at 7:30. and we'll find out why craig barrett is not a facebook fan. and in sports news, yes, europe has retained the ryder cup. staging a comeback after the u.s. began sunday with a big lea
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 2:00pm EDT
miss. and the big book boom. why j.k. rowling is oh, so important to the u.s. economy. >> okay. well, let's move on and take a look at what's happening in the markets. and it is all about breaking losing streaks on wall street today. the dow is on track to break a four-day skid. and with today's gains at least major averages with a better than 3% gain for september. so far. the s&p 500 is riding a five-day losing streak. but does appear to be setting to break that today. however, both the s&p and the nasdaq, even with today's possession, are on track for their biggest weekly drops in nearly four months. brian? >> all right, mandy, thank you. meantime, the violent protests continue in spain. today the government unveiling a new budget proposal to try to bring down the nation's crippling deficit. in it a proposed $51 billion spending cut next year, including an average 12% cut in government ministerial spending, a freeze in public pay for the third consecutive year, and a new 20% tax on lottery winnings. now, it does give something to the people. protection for pensions. well, bo
CNBC
Sep 27, 2012 6:00am EDT
steel maker has suspended output at a plant as the economy slows and demand weakens. meantime 40% of china's iron ore mines are standing idle as steel prices have crumbled. and loans to firms and households fell more than expected. ecb staying loans to the private sector fell 0.6% from the same month a year ago. italy's borrowing costs falling at a bond auction today. analysts say the auction shows nand for italian government paper remains healthy. and eu regulators are prepare to go charge microsoft for failing to comply with a 2009 ruling. that ruling had on ordered the company to offer user as choice of web browsers. apparently they may not have done that. if guilty, microsoft could face fines of up to 10% of its global revenues. and that would be a lot of money. >> iran still, we're this close to nuclear -- think our unfunded labels are like 60 trillion or something. europe back in the crapper, but the refs. huh? >> i told you, i don't always like unions. i'm actually happy that the refs union won. >> it does provide a release from some of the travails and the worries of every da
CNBC
Sep 28, 2012 4:00am EDT
while consumer prices slipped further in august raising fears the world's third biggest economy could yet fall into recession by year end. >>> what a big day. >> super friday. >> we have the french budget proposal, the results of the spain audit/stress test, we've got, what else -- it's the end of the quarter. britain is announcing it libor reforms. >> that's not what i was talking about. it's the ryder cup, folks. forget all that stuff. >> by the way, i had to google the ryder cup. >> far more important event. >> we'll talk about that later in the program. >> i don't know who insisted on that, but apparently we are going to cover it. >> before we get to that, the government of hollande is about to present it first budget. its expected to whicheverdelives of tax hikes. meantime european policymakers are appraising spain's reform plan. but today the government must brace for the results of the banking stress tests that will determine the recapitalization needs of the country's most troubled lenders. we have steve sedgwick following the story in thmadrid, but firs out to stefane i
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 7:00pm EDT
obama leading romney 49-46. the economy is issue number one and whose plans are better for the middle class. to answer that we are holding our own debate right here on the kudlow report. we are joined by new jersey democratic congressman and jim gillmore to make the case for governor romney. there will be time to talk among your selves at my disgression. the first question is going to congressman big paskrel. 1.3% gdp 25 million people out of the workforce. mr. president, what is your solution to the prosperity and the recovery that continues to elude us? >> over the past 30 months we have had an increase in private sector jobs. but that is the direction we are going in. if you remember what happened before that, when the president raised his hand in january of 2009, we were losing 700 no,000 jobs a month. but the fact of the matter is we are going in the right direction now and we should keep doing that. the president supports the position on the creation of jobs and the government can't do everything but it has a responsibility. we have lost public sector jobs and we have laid off a
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 1:00pm EDT
. >>> consumer spending making up 70% of the u.s. economy, this holiday shopping season a key gauge on whether this sluggish economy can shift into a somewhat higher gear. new numbers out today from the world's largest retail trade association, the nrf, says u.s. retail sales should rise 4.1% this holiday season. pretty merry. don't get too excited. that is actually slower than the growth the past two years. so, why the slow down in the nrf says the biggest things holding consumers back is uncertainty over the economy and whether congress can strike what deal and avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. >>> one major retailer hoping for a merry holiday season is jc penney. ceo ron johnson continues to outline his plans for the struggling chain store. the stock down 30%. johnson speaking on the record and excuse swivel our courtney real been the state of his business. courtney? >> hi, tyler, good afternoon. jc penney ceo ron johnson has just begun speaking. the toirng the rocky road to reinventing retape. spoke with johnson exclusively before he took the stage at the event. now, 700 of the total 1100
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 6:00am EDT
now, coming to grips with their economy is going to be horrendous for a long time. >> thank you very much. i'm sure we'll check back with you later this morning. >>> we have to go? really? we do? all right. coming up, this football stuff. >> we'll get into some of this. >> today's national weather forecast. in sports, another team clinches a major league baseball playoff spot. but pointless, really. going to lose to the reds one way or another. >>> both president obama and mitt romney will be in ohio today. the story behind that swing state. >>> welcome back. take a look and you'll see that the dow futures are slightly higher. s&p futures up by close to two and a half. this comes after the market ended on its weakest levels of the day yesterday. yesterday was the worst day for the month of september for the dow. it was the worst day in two months for the nasdaq and it was the worst day in three months for the s&p 500. all of that kind of playing out overseas as well. in europe this morning, you are going to see some red arrows. a lot of concern about what's happening as protests pick
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 4:00pm EDT
chinese economy in particular, the export economy, is structurally broken. i think that's a big change. i've been going to china since 1995. i think there's a fundamental shift in what's going on. we saw that in the caterpillar numbers. you saw that in the federal express numbers. some people think that's cyclical. i think there's prob a m secular component to it. >> this is a very important point you're making because china's growth has been driven by the export economy. you're saying that it's in trouble, it's broken. >> i'm not saying it's broken. i'm saying there's a transition going on towards consumption exporting to europe and real estate are no longer going to be their drivers nap will probably create more volatility than we've had in the past. >> how easy is it to expect this transition? you're buying in the consumer space. >> yes, and you have the transition of the government. one of the other big messages we picked up over there, particularly in i understondia, emerging market central banks, they're very concerned about what the traditional bank of england, fed, ecb a
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 6:00am EDT
economy are going to open up. we'll see where it all plays out, whether all current cities are suddenly represented in oil and gold, suddenly gold and oil are so high that any gains that you get in your market averages are -- >> and yet crude oil back at -- >> 92, yeah. expressed in either euros or dollar, it's expensive. the ten year note which we know is just able to trade wherever it wants and not being influenced at all by the fed, just at a 1.63%. look at the dollar which has been around 1.28 versus the euro. 1.29 today. and then gold was at a session high, i think it was at a euro all-time high yesterday. down a little bit today. >> right now time for the global markets report. ross westgate is standing by. while you -- >> two days now? >> guess who we get onset with us. >> mr. poulter. that's fantastic. and is that the first interview he's done outside of the event? >> he may have just talked after the event, i guess, and i know he had a few guinnesss after the event. i saw a few pictures yesterday. but he had those same eyes. eyes scare me a little bit. i'm not going to
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 6:00pm EDT
talks about getting the economy moving by any means necessary it is talking about getting more data like today's terrific ism number. given that the chinese are doing the same thing, if you're betting against the market you're fighting major central banks around the world that are doing their best to generate good data and why does this overused cliche matter so much? ben bernanke said he's going to continue to buy bonds to keep interest rates down, so that this purchasing manager's number won't be an aberration. when you examine the fundamental stocks, you are playing what's known as the micro. when you take into account the big data numbers like the purchasing manager's index, you're making a macro analysis. again though like the idea of fighting the fed this micro/macro dichotomy might mean nothing to you unless you took ec 101. let's put it in terms that everybody can understand. anyone who's been to a museum or taken an art class knows that for years artists tried to paint pictures as if they were perfectly -- let's say they tried to capture the exact look. like a kodak camera.
CNBC
Sep 26, 2012 4:00am EDT
to qe-3 because it won't help the economy. as far as bond yields are concerned, nudging ever close to the 5% mark in italy. we have got italy today with a bell auction. we'll get the results of that a little bit later. u.s. yields continue to fall back down lower at 1.46%. sterling/dollar is a little bit low. aussie/dollar is low. so the dollar having a good day apart from against the euro/dollar. starting to raise the gains we've made post the ecb out of the constitutional court. that's where we stand in european trade. what about in asia today? lisa has the details once again out of singapore. >> thanks, ross. the shanghai composite is not far from that all important 2,000 point mark. investors would have been much better off investing in greece instead of china. year to date stocks gained over 10% increase, but down about 9% in china on growth concerns and political uncertainties. today the shanghai composite was dragged down by resource and steel makers. property corps is down 1.2%. the hang seng physicaled suit. industrial resources and consumer goods weighed it down. the japanes
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 3:00pm EDT
and out of the executive suite and of course the economy and business in america as well as globally. we're going to talk with him at 4:30 p.m. eastern. before that, we have some heavy hitters coming up, including the former yahoo! ceo and the coca-cola ceo. all of a that coming up in the program. meanwhile, let's get back to the markets. we have a double-digit decline. in fact, it looks like the dow is on track to close lower for the sixth time in eight trading sessions. the dow jones industrial average now at 13,436, a decline of about 0.5%. if we close lower today that, would be the sixth decline in the last eight trading sessions. a bit of worry about earnings on the trading horizon, as we are expected expecting the stream of earnings to take effect. weakness in apple today. it is about 5% of the s&p 500 and 20% of the nasdaq. so as apple goes, so goes the market. that's what we're seeing once again today. s&p 500 down about five points. that's 1/3 of 1%. with markets in the red, let's look at what this says about where we are in business today. joining me in today's "closing bel
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 9:00am EDT
playing the it should go down game. >> what if you're making a call on the real economy, x market. what would you be saying about the u.s. fortunes into q4? >> i still await a negative retail story that i don't have. china -- can china remain bad forever? that's a difficult question to see how long it can remain bad. >> good point. stuff on housing is good. the lead story in "the journal" today, trade slowing. slowing pmis in japan, china, europe -- >> how is this news? what news was there in that story about trade is slow? were they really that devoid of anything new? that's like, d.a. probes rackets. come on! >> meanwhile, busy week for new companies. one of the busiest weeks for ipos since july. and i think september, i just saw these numbers, the best september since '99. eight deals, $5.5 billion, best actual month since may. >> david bust ser coming back. my daughter was able to beat -- there's a claw that comes down -- my daughter got five straight. i'm glad dave & buster is coming back. >> anything worth anything? >> not more than two cents. >> and it costs 50 cents to pla
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